Richard C. Young & Co., Ltd. is a Naples, FL and Newport, RI based financial advisory firm. We have been ranked by Barron’s as one of the top independent financial advisors in the nation for the last eight consecutive years. We manage portfolios for individuals, families, and small businesses throughout the United States.
One of the more common mistakes individual and even professional investors make is ignoring or underestimating future events. During the past three years, both the Dow and the S&P 500 posted positive returns. While 2012 could certainly be another favorable year, investors would be well advised to expect continued periods of high volatility.
Here is one problem facing investors: during August and September, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose or fell by more than 1% on 29 days. By third quarter’s end, the Dow was down 12%, the largest quarterly percentage decline since the first quarter of 2009. This degree of volatility, which of course is great fodder for the media, can lead to knee-jerk decisions that send investment strategies off course.
Over recent years, we have advocated and pursued what we consider to be a defensive investment strategy. Our caution has centered on the troubling condition of the global economy. Today, the world’s largest economic players face powerful structural headwinds likely to constrain economic growth. Yet many economists, policymakers, and investors have operated with an optimistic outlook. We contend that problems exist and that many financial assets are not reflecting this reality.
August has been a stark reminder of the serious challenges facing investors. Those lulled into a sense of complacency from double-digit market gains in 2009 and 2010 were rocked back to reality this month by three events.
On Thursday, August 4, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its worst point-drop since the financial crises in December 2008. More bad days followed as the Dow dropped 4% during the week of August 15. For the month, the Dow was down almost 4.4%. Concerns are broad. In the U.S., the economy had been much stronger in the first half of last year compared to 2011. Real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 3.9% in the first quarter of 2010 and 3.8% in the second quarter. For 2011, GDP rose at a rate of 0.4% in the first quarter and 1% in the second quarter. In Europe, a debt crisis, which began in Greece, is widening to include far larger economies of Spain, Italy, and even France. While the U.S. has been officially out of recession for two years, the economy is still on shaky ground. If Europe can’t contain its debt crisis, the global economy could suffer a serious blow. Stock market volatility remains a threat.
I sure would feel more comfortable if an attractive interest-rate environment accompanied today’s stock-market gains. While the Dow is up over 7% YTD, the yield on a five-year Treasury note is a lowly 1.7%. But a competitive interest-rate environment has not been a priority of the Federal Reserve. Instead, the Fed has kept its core short-term interest rate near zero while spending heavily on bonds to keep longer rates low.
NAPLES, FL
5150 Tamiami Trail North, Suite 400
Naples, FL 34103
Phone: (888) 456-5444 Fax: (239) 213-0770
NEWPORT, RI
98 William Street
Newport, RI 02840
Phone: (800) 843-7273 Fax: (401) 849-0002
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